In 2025 and into early 2026 Pakistan went through a broad agricultural stress episode that hit crop prices and farmer incomes from several angles. Here's a rounded view of what happened and why it felt like a "crop prices crisis" for many:
1. Production Declines and Crop Sector Contraction
The overall crop output in the 2024-25 agricultural year dropped sharply. Key crops like wheat, cotton, maize, sugarcane and rice saw production fall significantly compared to previous years, with some categories down more than 10% in overall output. Experts linked this to a mix of changing weather, policy missteps, water shortages and structural problems in farming systems.
2. Weather Shocks and Floods
Severe monsoon flooding during 2025 damaged millions of acres of farmland in prime agricultural regions. Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were particularly affected, with crops like rice, cotton and vegetables suffering massive losses. This disruption cut supplies and weakened farmers' ability to produce and sell their goods.
3. Input Costs and Incomes
At the same time, prices for seeds, fertilizer, irrigation and fuel kept rising, raising the cost of farming. With reduced output and poor procurement prices, many farmers found it hard to cover their costs. Some associations reported huge financial losses for growers in the first half of 2025, with rice, maize and other main products driving most of the damages.
4. Wheat Price and Policy Issues
Wheat, one of Pakistan's most important staples, became a flashpoint. Government support prices and procurement failed to keep pace with production costs in 2025, leaving many growers selling grain at low rates or being unable to sell at all. There were calls from farmer groups for fair and predictable pricing systems after years of unstable returns.
5. Potato Glut and Price Collapse
In 2025 and early 2026 a notable crisis hit potato growers. Acreage expanded sharply during the season, far outstripping market demand at home and abroad. With export routes limited and cold storage running out of space, farm-gate potato prices collapsed well below production cost. Many farmers were forced to dump or use crops for animal feed because the market could not absorb the surplus.
6. Market Prices for Consumers
The combined impacts of weather shocks and broken supply chains pushed food prices up in urban markets. In some cities prices for vegetables rose 30% or more as disrupted harvests and transport bottlenecks reduced available stock.
Consequences
If farmers do not receive fair prices for their crops this year, the rural economy may face serious decline. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, directly supporting millions of families and indirectly sustaining trade, transport, small businesses, and agro-industries. When crop prices fall below production cost, farmers are unable to recover expenses on seed, fertilizer, diesel, irrigation, and labor. This leads to debt, distress selling of assets, and reduced investment in the next sowing season.
Unfair pricing also discourages cultivation of key crops such as wheat, cotton, rice, and vegetables. Lower production in the following season can create supply shortages, which may later push food prices up for consumers. In this way, both farmers and urban populations suffer. Rural markets shrink because farmers spend less on goods and services, affecting shopkeepers, transporters, and daily wage workers.
If the situation continues, it can result in increased poverty, migration from villages to cities, unemployment, and social instability. Small and marginal farmers are the most vulnerable, as they have limited savings and access to credit.
To prevent economic decline, it is essential to ensure:
- Fair and timely support prices based on real production costs
- Transparent procurement systems
- Strong market regulation to prevent exploitation by middlemen
- Improved storage, processing, and export facilities
- Access to affordable inputs and credit
A stable and fair agricultural pricing system is not only important for farmers but for national economic stability and food security. When farmers earn just returns, the entire economy remains stronger and more balanced.